Could SD cards replace DVDs?

ComputerWorld has an interesting opinion piece entitled Is Apple trading SD cards for DVDs in MacBooks?. The author, Seth Weintraub, speculates that the inclusion of SD card slots in Apple's latest notebook line signifies a gradual shift away from optical media to solid state, similar to the way Apple killed off the floppy disk.

Whether true or not, it would make a lot of sense. Steve Jobs has made it clear that he is not a fan of the licensing system for Blu-ray discs, and switching to SD or SSD distribution would not only remove the need to use a proprietary, licensed format but also provide the opportunity for more powerful hardware DRM / encryption to protect content, such as that used by the military. Although DRM is unpopular with consumers, it is a necessary evil in order to get content providers to embrace a new format.

SD cards / SSD drives also have the benefit of being reusable (although distributors could choose to prevent writes at the file system or controller level) and being considerably smaller than optical discs, which is both convenient and good for the environment. As well as being smaller, they would be much faster at reading and writing than conventional discs.

The content creation process would be much simpler too. Burned DVDs are inferior to replicated DVDs, and so any mass distribution requires you to send your master off to a replication facility, which is an expensive process that can be very inflexible when it comes to quantities. SD cards / SSDs, on the other hand, can easily be cloned in-house for no cost and there would be no physical quality issues in doing so.

Computer manufacturers could use the space taken up by large DVD drives to increase the battery size of laptops, add more components (such as ExpressCard slots and eSATA ports, Apple), increase performance, reduce heat, or reduce the physical size of the computer. Television manufacturers could simply include an SD slot in the TV itself, removing the need for a separate player, saving both space and cost.

As to the format on such a disk, it would be silly to use H.264 as it requires royalty and licensing fees, and one of the positive reasons for switching to SD / SSD is to get rid of such licensing fees. As you may be aware, a battle for web video formats is currently ongoing and Ogg Theora, while weaker in a technical sense, could be a great open format for SD/ SSD-based distribution as bandwidth and storage space would be much less of an issue than on the internet.

SD distribution would also provide a means of increasing compatibility, as it would be possible to include NTSC, PAL, 16:9, 4:3 and HD versions on the same disk, which could be automatically selected based on the type of television being used (or the resolution of the computer display). If video formats should change in the future, it would be dead easy to include both the new and old formats on the same card to maintain full compatibility between old and new. Companies could even put 4K video on the card in anticipation of future technologies.

It would have the potential to really level the playing field for independent filmmakers. Right now the safest option for indies is digital distribution because it doesn't cost any money to put your film online. It just sits there, for free, until it is sold - in stark contrast to the DVD approach, where you pay a lot of money up front and hope and pray that you make it back. Most indies will not be able to get their discs into physical stores like Wal-mart, which makes getting through inventory much harder. The downside to a download-only approach is that by not going the DVD or Blu-ray route, you cut out a significant portion of the audience who have no desire for digital downloads.

It's very difficult for an independent filmmaker to create a Hollywood-quality DVD, as Hollywood has access to high quality hardware encoders and professional compressionists that are experts in squeezing out the maximum quality in the limited bandwidth available. With SD cards, bandwidth would be considerably higher and so it would take much less effort to produce a high quality image suitable for distribution. And if the video formats were open formats like Ogg Theora, there would be no license fees to pay for mass distribution.

Will this ever happen? Well, there are currently two barriers. The first is that the cost per GB of solid state media is very high. This is something that will decrease with time though.

The second, more pertinent, issue is the fact that many companies are heavily invested in DVD and Blu-ray technology including studios, post houses, distributors, replication houses, disc manufacturers, drive / player manufacturers, software developers, and let's not forget the consortium of companies that receive patent royalties. None of these will want to see their investments or, for some companies, their entire business model go out of the window.

Of course, this is all pure speculation. When the cost and size of SD cards becomes viable, there could be a brand new technology which renders this solution unnecessary. We'll just have to wait and see what happens, what Apple chooses to do, and if they have the ability to make an impact on this issue.

Posted by Jon Chappell on Saturday July 11 2009 7:36 AM to Apple, Industry, Analysis
Post ID: 392